Bitcoin Holds Near $78K as Fed Fears and Clarity Act Vote Loom

Bitcoin entered Wednesday trading near $78,200, still capped below the $80,000 to $82,000 resistance zone that has frustrated bulls throughout the month. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting, following a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that emphasized elevated inflation and triggered a global bond selloff. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.784%, a new cycle high, adding pressure to risk assets including crypto.

Despite the macro headwinds, institutional demand has remained resilient. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $986.9M in net inflows during the week ended Sept. 4, extending a positive-flow streak to three consecutive weeks. BlackRock's IBIT led the group with roughly $691.5M in weekly inflows, and cumulative inflows over the three-week run reached approximately $3.8B, making August the strongest monthly ETF result since September 2025.

CPI Report and FOMC Decision Set the Stage

All eyes now turn to Thursday's Consumer Price Index report, which traders see as the clearest near-term catalyst for Bitcoin's next directional move. A softer inflation reading could reduce rate-hike expectations and help BTC challenge the $82,000 level, while a hotter print could push attention back toward support at $77,000 to $77,600. On-chain conditions have improved, with more than 71% of circulating supply now in profit, giving buyers a firmer foundation ahead of the data release.

The legislative front adds another layer of uncertainty for the industry. The crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act faces a pivotal Senate procedural vote on Sept. 15, just one day after the CPI release. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed after the Senate adjourned for its August recess without acting on the bill. Passage requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and industry pessimism is growing, with SALT CEO John Darsie telling CNBC he is personally skeptical the bill will pass given proximity to midterm campaign season.

The House passed the Clarity Act in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote, but disagreements in the Senate over ethics rules, DeFi provisions, and regulatory authority have stalled progress. An ethics clause restricting elected officials from launching tokens has emerged as the provision most likely to block the bill outright. If the Senate cannot advance the legislation, the CFTC has signaled it will propose its own digital-asset market-structure rules, leaving the industry navigating a patchwork of agency guidance rather than durable law heading into 2027.