Polymarket Emerges as 2025 Leader in Blockchain Prediction Market Forecast Accuracy

Polymarket has emerged as a standout performer in the prediction markets sector during 2025, attracting significant trading volume and user engagement across a wide range of events. The platform's data from resolved markets reveals high levels of predictive accuracy, reinforcing its reputation as a reliable source of crowd-sourced probabilities. With billions in trades placed throughout the year, Polymarket has captured substantial attention in the crypto and blockchain communities.

Accuracy metrics from Polymarket demonstrate strong performance across different time frames leading up to market resolutions. Four hours before resolution, the platform achieves a 95.4% accuracy rate, while one month prior, the rate stands at 91.9%. These figures measure how frequently the leading outcome at those snapshots aligned with the final resolution, highlighting the market's effectiveness in aggregating information as events draw near.

Calibration between expected and actual outcomes remains tight, with expected accuracy at 98.1% and resolved accuracy at 95.1% across all probability ranges. The overall Brier score of 0.0604 further supports the quality of predictions, as lower scores reflect closer alignment between forecasted probabilities and real results. Scores improve notably with higher trading volumes, falling from 0.0718 for markets under $1,000 to 0.0156 for those over $1 million.

Resolution Trends and Competitive Landscape

Resolved markets in 2025 show a clear pattern in outcomes, with 79.6% settling on "No" and 20.4% on "Yes." This distribution occurs because many questions focus on specific events happening, where numerous paths lead to failure, making "No" resolutions more common. The data draws from price snapshots taken at multiple intervals, including one month, one week, one day, 12 hours, and 4 hours before resolution.

Competitors have also expanded their presence in the space. Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, has grown steadily alongside Polymarket, drawing investment and media coverage. And just this month, Gemini crypto exchange launched its own predictions market called Gemini Predictions, allowing users to trade event contracts. These contracts consist of simple yes-or-no agreements tied to specific, measurable real-world outcomes, enabling participants to trade based on whether a clearly defined event will occur.

Polymarket's consistent performance throughout 2025 positions it as a benchmark in the prediction markets industry. The platform's metrics illustrate the power of decentralized forecasting when participants have skin in the game. As the sector continues to evolve with new entrants and innovations, the year's results provide a solid foundation for understanding future trends in blockchain-based event trading.