Hardcore Bitcoiner “Plan B” Shifts from BTC Maxi to ETF Advocate, Community Stunned

In a surprising move that has stirred the Bitcoin community, “Plan B”, the analyst known for his Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, has revealed he transferred his Bitcoin into a Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF). This pivot is not just a personal financial decision but marks a significant shift in perspective for someone who was once considered a Bitcoin purist or "maxi."

Plan B's announcement came with a candid warning to his followers: "Disclosure: I have transferred my Bitcoin to ETFs." He acknowledged the traditional crypto mantra, "not your keys, not your coins," but argued for the ease and peace of mind that comes from managing his investments like equities and bonds. "But it is just easier for me to manage bitcoin the same way as equities and bonds. Not having to hassle with keys gives me peace of mind. I guess I am not a maxi anymore," he elaborated.

His decision was met with mixed reactions. The crypto community, particularly those who value self-custody, often view ETFs as a departure from the fundamental principles of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency which emphasize decentralization and personal control over assets. Plan B, however, sees this as a natural evolution in the Bitcoin journey towards mainstream acceptance. "I believe Bitcoin ETFs were a logical step in Bitcoin adoption, next to holding your own keys," he stated, expressing a bit of naivety or perhaps genuine surprise at the controversy his decision sparked. "I honestly didn’t know ETFs were so controversial."

Understanding the Stock-to-Flow Model

Plan B's reputation was largely built on his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which seeks to predict Bitcoin’s price based on its scarcity. Bitcoin, like gold, has a capped supply, but unlike gold, its production rate (flow) is programmatically reduced every four years through a process known as the Bitcoin halving. This model posits that as Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio increases due to these halvings, so should its value, drawing a parallel with how precious metals like gold gain value through scarcity.

Plan B's model suggested that post the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow would double, potentially leading to a market cap of $1 trillion and a per-Bitcoin price of $55,000. While the model has been both praised for its simplicity and criticized for its assumptions, it undeniably influenced many in the crypto space to think more critically about Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

This shift by Plan B from a staunch advocate of Bitcoin's direct ownership to embracing ETFs might signal a broader acceptance and integration of Bitcoin into traditional finance mechanisms. It challenges the community to reconsider the balance between ideological purity and practical investment strategies, highlighting the evolving narrative of cryptocurrency in the financial world. As Bitcoin continues to weave its way into conventional investment vehicles, the debate over control, security, and accessibility will only intensify.