Bitcoin Rebounds Above $61,000 as Jobs Miss Breaks ETF Outflow Streak

Bitcoin climbed back above $61,000 on Thursday after a weaker-than-expected June jobs report eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs last month, well below the 110,000 consensus forecast, pushing BTC up roughly 4.1% over 24 hours after briefly touching a cycle low near $58,200 earlier in the week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the European Central Bank's forum in Sintra, Portugal, noting that inflation risks had come down, added further tailwind to the move.

The soft payrolls print carried immediate consequences for rate expectations. Traders scaled back bets on a near-term Fed hike, with the benchmark rate now expected to hold steady in the 3.50%,3.75% range through at least September. Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the weaker jobs data strengthens Bitcoin's case as easing labor conditions reduce pressure for further monetary tightening, and he called $100,000 increasingly within reach by year-end if current trends persist.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Return After 10-Day Drought

The macro shift coincided with a critical technical reversal in spot Bitcoin ETF flows. $221 million poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single session, ending a painful 10-day outflow streak that had been among the longest since the products launched. The inflow was driven by funds other than BlackRock's IBIT, marking it as one of the strongest collective days in two months and signaling that institutional buyers may be stepping back in near current levels.

Regulatory uncertainty remained a stubborn headwind even as prices recovered. The White House had set July 4, America's 250th birthday, as a symbolic target for signing the CLARITY Act into law, but the Senate adjourned on June 25 and does not return until July 13, effectively killing that deadline. The bill still needs 60 Senate floor votes to break a potential filibuster, requiring at least seven Democratic crossovers, and Polymarket has trimmed 2026 passage odds to roughly 48%. Separately, five U.S. regulators proposed bank-grade Know-Your-Customer rules for primary market stablecoin transactions under the GENIUS Act, adding another layer of near-term compliance uncertainty for issuers across the market.